- up to 1.6 million Australian will drop their cover over five years (compared with Treasury’s estimate of 25,000);
- up to 4.3 million Australians will downgrade their cover over five years;
- premiums will increase 10% above what they otherwise would have; and
- an extra 845,000 Australians will be admitted to public hospitals.
Means testing will Hurt Health Care
The growth in the Private Health Insurance sector should send a signal to Government that Private Health Insurance is popular in the electorate; that the system is working; and the Government should maintain the existing Rebate and other incentives to keep Australia’s health system in balance.
The Government has made a number of wildly incorrect assumptions in framing their Policy Direction, such as failing to consider the impact of people downgrading their private health cover and not taking account of the flow on effects into the Public Hospitals of those people who drop and downgrade their cover, which means the Government paints an inaccurate picture of the policy’s outcomes.
An Independent report by Deloitte on the impact of means-testing the 30% Rebate, based on ANOP/Newspoll research into consumer behaviour in early 2011 found that:


